This disquisition has to do with the nature of man with his limited ability in prediction making decisions. Irrespective of man's limitations in making decisions, many have no problem in making predictions. Gambling and risk behaviors are prime prediction examples. Casinos are profitable and do quite well based on man’s nature . Also, when listening or watching the news, it's common to hear individuals making generalized political predictions .
According to Darwin, man's survival depended upon being the fittest. Does man’s decision-making have to do with him being the fittest and what are the other identifiable factors ? Within Kurt Lewin's Field Theory, the motivational approach-avoidance concept emerged. An approach incorporates a valence concept which is a scale that varies in degree of desire or impetus toward an object . Also, going against another person is another example of an approach . And ,avoidance also varies in degree of dislike or impetus . An example of valence is when visiting a medical facility when the nurse asks for a ratting of pain on a scale of 1 to 10 .Also within field theory ,are concepts of tension, barriers and other circumstances interfering with reaching that approach or avoiding goal. The approach -avoidance and valence concepts are based on the belief that it is necessary for tension or anxiety occurring within the individual. In essence , tension, anxiety, approach -avoidance and valence are motivational concepts.
In man's survival, within decision-making there are many factors for consideration. Nature is one factor. For example, approach can be related to a desire to experience the forest as in hiking, running or camping. Avoidance can be related to avoiding predators, fire, hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and tornadoes Other people , economics, political policies, culture ,institutions and society are additional factors depicted in employing an approach-avoidance motivational concept. Notably man’s survival is dependent on tension, anxiety ,approach-avoidance , valence , with decisions resulting in intended or unintended consequences .
In the beginning, the infant perceives, develops, and in this quest for survival, develops ego needs and a plethora of approach-avoidance experiences within the family, school, work , political, economic and social environment. Also, there is an unconscious process going on that is associated with impulses, passions, and guilt. Human and environmental conditions are not static. Therefore ,making a decision at 18 years of age or any other age might, with a limited understanding of all the variables ,result in negative consequences at a later date .
Ride & Tie had an extremely high positive approach valence for me. It was my favorite sport. In the Ride & Tie community, endurance, and Tevis were one of the same with the competitors.To make a long story short, my horse Running Bear was injured during one Ride & Tie conditioning. Because I was determined to enter the Tevis Cup , I purchased another horse that I called Raider .In 2000 after completing the Tevis Cup race ,I was confronted with making another decision. Should I enter Raider in another 100 mile endurance ride or should I retire him for the rest of the season? I entered the endurance ride and Raider suffered a suspensory ligament injury . So ,I rehabbed him and purchased Gypsy.
Gypsy and I competed in both Ride & Tie and endurance competitions . For example, Gypsy, Kurt and I completed the 75 mile Swanton Pacific Ride & Tie. Then I thought about the 100 mile Swanton Pacific Ride & Tie. Race manager Ellen Rinde told me that only three individuals had completed the one day 100 mile Tevis, the one day Western States 100 mile run and the one day 100 mile Swanton Pacific Ride & Tie. So, Jonathan, Gypsy and I entered and won that event in 2008. I then faced and made another decision and entered another Ride & Tie instead of retiring Gypsy for the remainder of the year. Gypsy sustained a suspensory ligament injury during that event. I rehabbed Gypsy and in January ,2009 , Linda , on Raider and I went on a conditioning ride. On that 2009 ride, Gypsy reared , I went off and was flown by helicopter to Sutter Medical Facility. I was told by the orthopedic surgeon that because of my broken neck injury, another fall from a horse might result in paralysis. I then retired from competitive equine events.
Years later, Raider suffered a serious medical condition. We did not proceed surgically. Linda then purchased another horse , Linda had a passion or positive valence approach for athletic activities and experiences. She was an enthusiastic golfer, swimmer, diver ,kayaker ,biker and equestrian. Unfortunately, In those activities ,she occasionally hit her head against some object and/or fell to the ground with unintended consequences .In 2016, she suffered a severe physical equestrian injury after being thrown from her horse. Years later, her brain scan revealed that she had Hydrocephalic dementia resulting from her history of traumatic brain Injuries . Linda was an excellent and experienced equestrian. Looking back, one could question her decision to ride at 83 years of age . However, she was experiencing pleasure and enjoyed that activity. Predictions are difficult and , at best, have either favorable or unfavorable consequences.
In conclusion, the motivation for survival is complex and we make decisions determined by many factors including anxiety, tension, approach- avoidance. Additionally other factors affect decision making like illness, frailty, or a loss of hope for future .In addition , factors of heredity, time, place, socioeconomics , quality of the parental and marital relationships, opportunities ,talent , skills plus ego needs come into play. As a result, the degree of accuracy for prediction in decision-making remains low at best. Thus, survival of the fittest is a generalization, and does little to tell us about one's life history . No human can predict or see the future accurately or with certainty. .
PS
My lovely bride turned 91 yesterday. Shortly ,we will travel to Calistoga for a mud bath.
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